30 July 2012

Safer Malaysia : PDRM Statistics of crime rate accurate?

Reported:       World Justice Project: Malaysia is #1 safest in 19 middle income countries, #12 safest overall, ahead of USA and Britain

Among the Sources:



What was discovered:-

·               The World Justice Project (‘WJP’) Rule of Law Index offers a detailed and comprehensive picture of the extent to which countries adhere to the rule of law in practice.

·               The Rule of Law Index utilized by WJP utilizes 9 factors (which are broken down further into 52 sub-factors) to determine a countries position vis a’ vis its compliance with the rule of law, namely:-

(i)            Limited Government Powers
(ii)       Absence of Corruption
(iii)     Order and Security
(iv)      Fundamental Rights
(v)        Open Government
(vi)      Effective Regulatory Enforcement
(vii)     Effective Civil Justice
(viii)    Effective Criminal Justice
(ix)      Informal Justice


·               The result of the WJP study are represented to be obtained from ‘general population polls’ as well as ‘experts’ in civil and commercial law, criminal justice, labour law and public health. No details are available on the website to determine the details of the persons polled. The poll also avers to Malaysia being an upper middle income country which suggests that the polls may not be a reflection of the entire diversity of the citizens of Malaysia.

·               The result of the WJP study was gathered from polling done in Kuala Lumpur, Ipoh and Johor Bahru and thus cannot be said to be an accurate reflection of the entire Malaysia.

·               It must be noted that Malaysia polled below the East Asia and Pacific average standards in the following items:-

(i)            government powers limited by judiciary;
(ii)          independent auditing and review;
(iii)        government officials sanctioned for misconduct;
(iv)          government powers limited by non-governmental checks;
(v)            absence of corruption in the executive branch;
(vi)          freedom of assembly and association;
(vii)        arbitrary interference of privacy;
(viii)      freedom of religion and belief;
(ix)          freedom of opinion and expression;
(x)            due process of law;
(xi)          criminal system is free of improper government influence;
(xii)        criminal system is free of discrimination;
(xiii)      correctional system is effective;
(xiv)       civil justice is free of improper government influence;
(xv)         laws are stable;
(xvi)       right to petition and public participation;
(xvii)     official drafts of laws are available;
(xviii)   official information requested is available; and
(xix)       the government does not expropriate without adequate compensation.

·               Malaysia did poll above the East Asia and Pacific average standards in the following items:-

(i)            civil conflict is effectively limited;
(ii)          people do not resort to violence to redress grievances; and
(iii)        civil justice is free of corruption.

·               The poll did however indicate that the ‘absence of crime’ did rank just below the East Asia and Pacific average standards.


·               The Rule of Law index is not meant to measure safety but rather the compliance with the rule of law.

 

Reported:        Malaysia is #1 safest and most peaceful country in South East Asia, #4 safest and peaceful in Asia Pacific, #19 safest and peaceful globally.


Among the Sources:-


“Malaysia Safest Country in South East Asia”

Muhyiddin added the Global Peace Index had cited Malaysia as a safe country and most peaceful in South East Asia, the fourth in Asia Pacific and number 19 globally”

What was discovered:-      

·               Reference to Global Peace Index (‘GPI') can be seen at http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi-data/

·               GPI is used in the study of the relative Peacefulness of a Country and not of a Country’s ‘Safety’

·               GPI includes 23 indicators ranging from a nation’s level of military expenditure to its relations with neighbouring countries and the level of respect for human rights.

·               Malaysia scored 1.485 on the GPI indicating that it is a relatively peaceful country (1 being the most peaceful, 5 being the least). The GPI does not have any measure of the comparative ‘safety’ of a Country.

·               Out of 23 indicators in the GPI, only 2 deal with crime, namely:-

(i)            Perceived Criminality in Society; and

(ii)          Violent Crime.

·                 Malaysia received a score of 2/5 for each of the ‘crime indicators’ mentioned above which ranked as two of the 8 highest scores of the 23 indicators in the GPI.

·                  However, Malaysia’s ‘good’ rankings in the GPI can be attributed to the 12 of the 23 indicators which were given scores of 1.0 which included but were not limited to items such as access to weapons, terrorise acts, UN Peacekeeping funding, heavy weapons, weapons exports, displaced people and so forth.


 

Reported:        Index crime fell by 10.1%; Street crime fell by 43% (between Jan – May 2012)



Definition:    Index Crime

Index Crime is defined as “crimes which are serious in nature and which occur with sufficient frequency and regularity that they can serve as an index to the overall crime situation in Malaysia”.
                       
Currently, the Index Crime are (1) theft, (2) snatch theft, (3) motorcycle theft, (4) car theft, (5) heavy machinery theft, (6) break-in day, (7) break-in night, (8) unarmed gang robbery, (9) unarmed robbery, (10) armed gang robbery, (11) armed robbery, (12) assault, (13) rape, (14) murder.
(GTP annual report 2011, page 61)

                        Street Crime

Defined as consisting of “snatch theft, unarmed gang robbery and unarmed robbery”
(GTP annual report 2011, page 64)

Among the Sources:

Government Transformation Programme (‘GTP’) Annual Report 2011, pages 61 until 64.


What was discovered:-

·               Street crime was classified to include robbery with firearms and without firearms by Pemandu’s CEO Datuk Seri Idris Jala in an interview with the Star newspaper. The inclusion of this category may have ‘altered’ the statistics of street crime. No reason was given for such inclusion.

·               In the same interview, Datuk Seri Idris Jala went on to differentiate Street crime into crimes ‘with firearms’ (i.e. with guns) and ‘without firearms’ (i.e. knives, parangs, etc.).

·               There is a clear ‘shifting of goal posts’ in the definition of ‘Street Crime’ i.e. the GTP’s own annual report 2010 had defined ‘Street Crime’ as consisting only of snatch theft, unarmed gang robbery and unarmed robbery.


Datuk Seri Idris Jala’s interview rather contradicts the statements of Pemandu's director Eugene Teh Yee.
·               Drop in Crime Index may be due to reduction in Vehicular Theft i.e. encompassing cars, machinery and motorcycles.

Surveys conducted by TNS Research International reveal the following in 2011:-

The survey in this wave saw an obvious decrease in all categories, especially vehicle related crimes (from 53.8% in January 2011 to 49.2% in May 2011)”


·               Overall, the lack of transparency in terms of how these statistics are measured cast doubts over the validity of such statistics i.e. what are the actual numbers? There is no access to data and/or the break down on what are the percentages of the crimes reported which had ‘contributed’ to the Index Crimes and Street Crimes are. The only statement given thus far is that these statistics are made based on data collected by the PDRM based on police reports lodged.

·               Crime Index is defined in GTP Annual Report 2010 as crimes “which are serious in nature and which occur with sufficient frequency and regularity”. Does this mean that the type of crimes in the Crime Index can change depending on the frequency and regularity in which they occur?

·               In a recent article entitled ‘Hishammuddin: NKRA initiative to tackle street crime expanded”, Home Minister, Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein was quoted as saying  …although in reality the crime index did not show any improvement, the government's efforts to tackle crime in the country had earned the praise of outsiders such as the International Free Panel participated by Singapore, the United Kingdom and the United States.



Other methods of measuring safety in Malaysia?

(1)       Numbeo

Serbian based website ‘numbeo’ ranked the Crime Index in Malaysia at 69.19% and Safety at 30.81% with the percentages meaning as follows:-

(i)        Crime Index is estimation of overall level of crime in a given city or a country. Crime Levels up to 50 are reasonable, and crime index levels more than 100 are too high.
(ii)       Safety index is, on the other way, quite opposite of crime index. If the city has high safety index, it is considered very safe.
The indices taken into account by this website in determining crime and safety index can be seen at http://www.numbeo.com/crime/city_result.jsp?country=Malaysia&city=Kuala+Lumpur

We would however urge readers to note that the date collated in this website must be taken with a pinch of salt as they deal take general online polls from undetermined persons and have only polled Kuala Lumpur and not the whole of Malaysia. In addition, the indices used appear to be very different from those referred to by Malaysian authorities.

(2)       NationMaster

Australian based website ‘NationMaster.com’ has ranked Malaysia as no. 37 out of 82 countries in the number of  ‘crimes’ committed based on indices which can be seen at http://www.nationmaster.com/country/my-malaysia/cri-crime.

Statistics are collated and compiled by NationMaster from such sources as the CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization, World Bank, World Resources Institute, UNESCO, UNICEF and OECD.

By Yip Huen Weng





Is the GTP the MAIN or ONLY cause of the perceived drop in Crime Statistics?

Other factors may include:-

1)         Better Economy/Wealth inequality




2)         Perceived inaccuracy of Crime Statistics

·        Crime Statistics are based on reports lodged
·        There is fear/reluctance among members of public to lodge police reports.
·        Index and Statistics are not the best way to measure Crime.
·        How to measure unreported crimes?
·        Crime Index fails to take into account the ‘dark figures’ i.e. unreported crimes
·        How many cases are successfully




3)         Gated Communities


4)         Better Policing



n/b:    

1)         All data collated in this Article was taken off the internet utilizing only google searches.

2)         None of the websites referred to or mentioned in this Article belong to or is the product of the author of this Article and credit is duly given by the Author to the creators of such websites.

3)         Some of the data researched has been compared before. Please refer:-




(iv)          http://www.thesundaily.my/news/412806


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